Comments on: Estimating Sales, Part 1: Working from Your Marketing Plan

By: Ankur Agarwal

Ankur Agarwal — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 05:20:29 +0000

I was in the commissioning of higher education (engineering, to be precise) books once upon a time, and yes to estimate how much a given book would sell was a rough time. Interestingly, it didn’t always depend on the quality of content or the cover. In such a field, instead of reviews we have professors and deans recommending a book–and that was not all the game. How do you know if the student is going to buy a book and not borrow it from the library? An unfortunate spinoff used to be studying the books which students are actually buying: and they mostly turn out to be the kind where you have all the notes and formulas to be crammed up in one place, organised well, but with no good explanations of the basics or in fact of any topic. And then we had to stoop down to the same level sometimes in order to “compete.”

Very interesting article, Marion. I would love it if you would bring some more examples, more complicated ones from diverse fields.

By: Marion Gropen

Marion Gropen — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 16:52:18 +0000

You’re right, of course, Stephen. Covers sell books. Having a good one is critical.

You’re also right that publishing a book without having a solid grasp of the numbers involved is a bad idea.

Personally, I think that there are a few main reasons why people do this. Some can’t figure out how to estimate their books’ prospects. Some feel that their book should be published without the “taint” of a business-like approach. And some just avoid numbers reflexively.

Whatever the reason, it’s a recipe for disaster more often than not.

By: Stephen Tiano

Stephen Tiano — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 01:49:16 +0000

Not having a horse in this kind of race—I’m neither an author nor a publisher, but rather a book designer—I found this piece very illuminating. Opened my eyes as to just what a project selling a book is.

In your example, 138 copies sold, based on one review, sounds like not a lot. But, then, thinking about the possibility of lining up multiple reviews—how difficult a proposition is that for a neophyte?—maybe there’s gold in them thar reviews.

Further, tho’, it always comes down to having a good book to sell. An interesting attractive cover that drives prospective readers to picking up the book still seems key. Then that well-written turn on whatever topic—be it fiction or non—stands a chance. And, of course, the interior pages must not be so noticeable that they distract or annoy the reader.

Still, with all of that, I don’t see how it makes any sense to publish a book without just such a sales estimate as part of a serious marketing plan.